"Post-Release Supervision, Discretion and Disparities" with David C. Macdonald
Abstract: In 2011, North Carolina extended post-release supervision (PRS) to 80% of felony releasees who were previously freed unsupervised. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that PRS sharply increased returns to prison through discretionary revocations and raised time served after initial release, despite a concurrent reform intended to curb such revocations. We find no effect on overall reconviction, though this masks an offsetting decline in felonies and rise in misdemeanors. The burden of the expansion fell unequally: black supervisees were revoked more often and served more time, resulting in reconviction patterns suggesting incapacitation, and white supervisees saw felonies fall and misdemeanors rise, suggesting charge downgrading. Ultimately, the expansion imposed substantial costs without measurable public-safety benefits.
"Childhood Gender Nonconformity and Gender Gaps in Life Outcomes" with Torsten Santavirta & Miguel Sarzosa, Conditionally accepted, Journal of Human Capital
Abstract: We study the role of childhood gender conformity in generating gender gaps. We present a conceptual framework that uses gender norms to explain why some women make less profitable choices than comparable men. Using unique longitudinal survey and register data, we show that gender-nonconforming girls have substantially higher grades at compulsory school, are more likely to choose STEM track in high school, go to college and to postpone childbearing. In contrast, gender-nonconforming boys perform substantially worse at school, sort into lower-paying occupations, earn less, and have a greater incidence of mental health disorders and substance abuse during adulthood than gender-conforming boys. Our analyses suggest that such divergence develops from an early age.
"Outpatient and Inpatient Mental Health Facilities for Children and Juvenile Crime"
Abstract: I explore the relationship between mental health care for children and juvenile crime. Using data with information on facilities that specifically treat children, I exploit the county-level variation in the number of mental health treatment facilities for minors in a two-way fixed-effects model to explore the relationship between access to mental health care in a given year and juvenile crime the following year. I find that outpatient and inpatient mental health facilities for children have heterogeneous effects on juvenile crime.
"The Effects of Chicago’s Teacher Strikes on Youth Behavior" with Mary Kate Batistich, Jillian Carr, Clint Harris, & Kendall Kennedy
Abstract: In the 2010s, Chicago’s teachers participated in two of the largest teacher strikes in American history, causing schools to shut down for a combined twenty-two days with little notice to the more than 400,000 students enrolled in Chicago Public Schools. Using a variety of methods – interrupted time series, difference-in-differences, synthetic controls, and place-based intensity of treatment analysis – this study examines how these unexpected school closures in 2012 and 2019 affected crime, teen births, and traffic accidents. We find for both strikes that crime in Chicago neither significantly nor substantially changed during or after the strike, and no evidence that any specific type of crime was affected as well. Using publicly available natality data from the CDC, we find preliminary evidence that for youths aged 15-19 overall birth rates increased nine months after the strike, the birth rate of newborns who needed to be in the NICU increased, the birth rate of newborns needing assisted ventilation increased, average birth weight decreased, average gestational age decreased, and average age of the mother decreased. In addition, we find preliminary evidence that the 2019 strike resulted in more traffic accidents and increased total accident-related damage costs; however, traffic fatalities decreased.
"Unemployment Insurance and the Development of Human Capital" with Daniel Kebede
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to explore economic outcomes of human capital development due to differences in the generosity of various unemployment insurance policies. The paper looks to see if more human capital is created when unemployment benefits are greater. Simulations of a basic human capital development model show that individuals will hold off on accumulating human capital when they know that they have generous unemployment insurance. In settings where unemployment benefits are not high, individuals will choose to educate themselves in order to self-insure.